Songkran spending is forecast to drop by 1.49 per cent to only Bt96.81 billion – the first fall in six years and the lowest figure in three years – due to the political storm.

“Normally, spending during the festival should be up by 45 per cent in line with economic expansion. However, consumers have high concern about the turmoil. Demand for spending and travelling will be much lower this year,” Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s (UTCC) Economic and Forecasting Centre, said yesterday. The forecast assumes that the political disorder will last until the Songkran festival.

About Bt7 billionBt8 billion will be lost due to the turmoil this year, compared to a normal Songkran, he said.

Last year, Songkran spending was Bt98.27 billion, up by 2.18 per cent from 2008.

This year, consumers are expected to spend on average Bt6,454 per person during the holiday.

If the political fracas could be calmed before the Songkran festival, then spending could increase by 1.89 per cent to Bt100.13 billion, the centre said.

Under the worstcase scenario, which assumes continuing protests and even violence during Songkran, spending could drop by 4.67 per cent to only Bt93.68 billion.

Thanavath said the political chaos has the highest influence over the mood of the people. Consumers are highly likely to spend less and stay home rather than travel.

About 59 per cent of 1,213 respondents to a survey from March 31 to April 4 said the protest had not affected their travel decisions during Songkran, while 41 per cent said the rally had had an effect. Most people said that they preferred to stay home rather than travel, and some would reduce the number of days travelling.

Wachira Kunthaweethep, a lecturer at the UTCC, said that almost 75 per cent of respondents would not travel this year, the highest figure since 2006. Only 27 per cent of respondents will travel. The poll found that most people intend to travel within the country rather than go overseas.

The number of travellers heading abroad also dropped, to 10.4 per cent from 12 per cent last year.

On average, travellers will spend Bt57,472 per person on their overseas trips. Spending this year will be financed 41.6 per cent from salaries, 39.3 per cent from savings, 18 per cent from bonuses and extra income and 1 per cent from other sources.

Spending will go for travel, meritmaking, gifts and premiums and consumer goods, partying, alcohol, and luxuries and durable goods.

Among the politicians that people would like to pay respect to during the Songkran festival, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva led with 68 per cent, followed by former prime minister Chuan Leekpai with 9.3 per cent, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban with 6.5 per cent, and former PM Banharn Silapaarcha with 6.2 per cent. Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra came next with 4.7 per cent.

 News item Courtesy of The Nation Bangkok at www.nationmultimedia.com